If the May 18 elections were held next Sunday, O would win the elections with 34.1% of the votes. The PS would continue to be the second most voted political force with 27.1%, the arrival would maintain third position, with 15.2%and the liberal initiative (IL) would reach 8.3%. These results of Consul of consultmark2 for Sunrise and Euronews They show that, compared to the first half of April, it is the technical raffle between the two main political forces, since the margin of error is 4.1%.
One of the most important data of the survey is that, depending on the distribution of mandates by the deputies, it may be possible Ad obtains an absolute majority in coalition with IL: the two forces together gather 42.4% of the votes. In 2022, the PS of António Costa reached the majority in Parliament with 41.38% of the votes.
It is true that the next Assembly of the Republic will continue to have an important majority. When asked if Luís Montenegro should maintain the “no” or if he should be allied with André Ventura to achieve an absolute majority, the answer was conclusive: 66.8% replied that AD should not ally with the arrival. As for a possible reissue of the “outbreak” of the PS, the voters remain divided: 42.95 say that the left pact must re -cast against 49.25 that reject the idea.
The results of the latest consultMark2 survey, which in the legislative elections of a year ago was the closest to the electoral results, also indicates that the free stabilized by 4.3%, that the left block (be) fell to 2.7% compared to the first half of April, which CDU increased slightly to the same 2.7% and that the bread drops to 1.1%.
These results result from the arithmetic distribution of undecided that, in this survey, fell slightly 21.4% in the first half of April to 20.2%. Without the distribution of undecided, the announcement led by Luís Montenegro collected 26.7% of the voting intentions, against 21.3% of Pedro Nuno Santos’s party. The arrival has already collected 12% and the 6.5% liberal initiative. All these parties rise in relation to the place of the first half of April. The free is 3.3%, the block falls to 2.1%, drawing with the slightly ascending CDU. The pan is already reduced to 0.9%.
The survey was held between April 14 and 22, with the television debates that were carried out and during the period in which the opening of a Preventive Research to Pedro Nuno Santos. The exhibition had 569 telephone interviews: 282 men and 287 women. The margin of error is 4.1%.
A total of 87% of respondents said they intended to vote on May 18 and 69.4% have already decided to vote for. When asked what is the most likely scenario, 53% of respondents said they believed that AD will win the elections with a relative majority, against the 19.7% who believe that the PS will be the most voted part. Only 6.5% say that the alliance between PDS and CD will obtain the absolute majority.
Montenegro is the favorite for the prime minister
Montenegro continues to deserve the preference of the Portuguese to hold the position of Prime Minister. The advertisement leader even increased the difference to Pedro Nuno Santos compared to the first half of April. According to the consultMark2 survey for Sunrise and Euronews, 45.3% of respondents prefer Montenegro to lead the next government, against 25.5% that choose the socialist leader. Only 11.8% said they preferred André Ventura.
On the concern of each of the candidates with the issues that most concern the Portuguese, the respondents believe that Luís Montenegro will pay more attention to the issues such as justice (39.4%), housing (36.4%), the National Health Service (40.1%), security – for an overwhelming majority of 53% – middle class (45.7%), taxes (46%). (32%), 32%), 32%), youth), youth). (42.7%), Immigration (48.2%), Defense (53.3%) and the European Union (41.5%). Pedro Nuno Santos is seen as someone who will be more concerned with the most disadvantaged (41.1%), Social Security (38.1%), environmental problems (30.9%), the elderly (37.3%), social inequalities (43.1%) and pensioners (40.1%).
The most serious problems in Portugal: health, housing and immigration
TO health It is still in Superior of Portuguese concernsDespite a slight decrease compared to the first half of April: 48.2% of respondents in consultmark2 for Sunrise and Euronews pointed to the state of the National Health Service as a priority issue. As in the last two surveys, the accommodation It is the second issue that most of the concerns of the Portuguese and the number of respondents who claim to be disturbed on the subject have really grown: 28.3% in March, increased to 39.3% in the first half of April and 43.4% in the last survey. In this period, Eurostat announced Portugal was one of the countries of the European Union where the price of houses grew the In the last decade.
However, in this survey, there was a concern that recorded an increase over all others: the immigration. In response to the question “What are the most serious problems with which Portugal discusses today?” In which they could give several answers, 20% of respondents indicated immigration compared to 11.1% who said they were concerned about the issue in the first half of April.
It is not known if this increase is related to the recent news of participation of a Brazilian immigrant in the murder of a young man in Braga. Concern for immigration even exceeded issues such as Education/teaching (19.9%), a Inflation/life cost (17.8%), a corruption (10.4%) and the economic developmentAlthough the latter has increased from 9.8% to 16.2%.
Presidential: Gouveia and Melo leads prominent
If the presidential elections were held next Sunday, Henrique Gouveia and Melo It would be the favorite of the Portuguese to happen to Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa. Faced with a list of 11 candidates and possible presidential candidates, 29% expressed their preference for the Admiral. Secondly, highlighted with 16.9%, they look like Luís Marques Mendescandidate with the support of the PSD that has already presented his candidacy for Belém and has been campaigning throughout the country. André Ventura (6.5%) comes third.
No socialist field, António José Safe my Antonio Vitorino Collect similar preferences. The first collects 6.3% of voting intentions against 5.6% of the second. However, when asked which prefer the candidate of the Socialist Party, the former secretary general collects the preferences of 41.7% of respondents against 29.5% of the former director of the International Migration Organization.
The highlight Paulo Portas which also obtains 5.6% of voting intentions. However, when asked who should support, if Marques Mendes or Paulo Portas, the overwhelming majority of respondents in this consultMark2 survey for Sunrise and Euronews prefers the former PSD leader: 54.1%. A total of 15.5% of respondents remain undecided.
