Scientists can already monetarily estimate the damage caused by the fossil industry
The largest companies in the world have caused climatic damage for a value of $ 28,000 million (25,000 million euros), according to a new study. A research team from the University of Dartmouth calculated the pollution caused by 111 companies. More than half of the total figure comes from 10 fossil fuels suppliers: Saudi Aramco, Gazprom, Chevron, Exxonmobil, BP, Shell, National Iranian Oil Co., Permex, Coal India y La British Coal Corporation.
The total amount is slightly lower than the sum of all the goods and services produced in the United States last year. Saudi Aramco e Gazprom, who directs the listEach of one more than two billion dollars (1.8 billion euros) of damage in decades caused each one, as reflected in the study published last Wednesday in the magazine “Nature”.
The researchers estimate him Each percentage point of greenhouse gases Issued in the atmosphere since 1990 caused 502,000 million dollars (441 billion euros) Only in the falling damageA, which does not include the costs caused by other extreme weather phenomena such as hurricanes, droughts and floods.
The study tries to determine “causal connections that they are the basis of many of these responsibilities“Explains the main author, Christopher Callahan, who did the work in Dartmouth but is now a scientist of the land systems at Stanford University.
People speak of polluting payments and sometimes they even bring them to court or approve the laws to stop them. The Zero Carbon Analytics search company has 68 requests submitted all over the world for damage caused For climate changeMore than half of them in the United States.
“Everyone asks the same question: what can we really claim about who caused this?” He said the climate of Dartmouth Justin Mankin, study study. “And this really reduces to a thermodynamic question If we manage to monitor the climatic dangers and/or their damage to certain emitters. “
Is it possible to calculate the impact of the emissions of a specific company?
The answer is yes, according to Callahan and Mankin. The researchers started with the Known final emissions of products, such as the petrol or electricity of coal plants, produced by 111 larger carbon emission companies, dating back to 137 years ago. That was the limit, since it is the most distant date to which they date back The company’s emission data and carbon dioxide remain in the air much longer.
They used 1,000 different computer simulations to translate these emissions into changes in Global media temperature of the earth’s surface, comparing it with a world without the emissions of those companies. With this method, determined that chevron pollutionFor example, he raised the earth temperature at 0.025 degrees Celsius.
The researchers also calculated the contribution of The pollution of each company To the five hottest days of the year through other 80 computer simulations e then apply a formula that refers The intensity of extreme heat with changes in economic production.
This system follows the model of the established techniques that scientists have used to attribute to Climate change meteorological phenomena extremes like The heat wave from the north -ovest of the Pacific of 2021.
Mankin said that in the past it was discussed: “Who can say that my CO2 molecule has contributed to these damage to any other?” According to him, His study “really clarifies that the veil of plausible denial There is no more scientifically. We can really monitor the damage to the main emitters. “Shell refused to comment. Aramco, Gazprom, Chevron, Exxon Mobil and BP did not respond to the requests for comments.
“Overwhelming” scientific evidence could help in the application for climatic responsibility
“All the methods they use They are rather solid “, says Friederike Otto, an imperial college climatologist in London who manages World Weather Attribion, a group of scientists who lead rapid attribution studies to determine if certain Extreme weather phenomena They worsened due to climate change and, in this case, to what extent. He did not participate in the study.
“In my opinion, it would be positive if this approach was adopted to a greater extent by different groups. As with the attribution of eventsThe more groups do, the more science it will be and we will know what the difference does and what does not, “said Otto.
Until now he has not thrived Request for climatic liability Against a large carbon station, but perhaps show “the overwhelming solidity of the scientific evidence” can change this situation, he said. In the past, the damage caused by individual companies They lost in the noise of the data, so they were unable to calculate, said Callahan.
“Now we have reached a point in the climatic crisis where Total damage They are so immense that the contributions of the product of a single company can be equivalent to dozens of billions of dollars a year“Said Chris Field, a Stanford University climatic scientist who has not participated in the research.
ADVERTISINGIt is a good exercise and a test of the concept, added Michael Mann, an atmosphere of the climate at the University of Pennsylvania who has not participated in the study, but there are so many other climatic variables that the figures have reached from Callahan and Mankin are probably A great underestimation of the damage that companies really caused.
