The Confederation of Agriculture and livestock in Brazil (CNA) says that the orange, beef and ethanol juice sectors will be the most affected by excessive dependence by the United States about imported products. CNA analysis is the representative of the high Brazil in American imports in these markets. “In these cases, Brazil will not have a” space “to acquire a potential competitor, as it is the only affected country or the main. This is the condition of cold and frozen orange juices, where Brazil represents 90 % and 51 % of American purchases, respectively; from beef thermal processor, with 63 %; and 75 %,” said tension in artistic observation.
For CNA, there is also a possibility to lose the market for Brazilian agriculture in the elements produced by the United States, where Brazil complements the offer with exports. The entity said: “This is the state of beef, where local production (in the United States) reaches 12.3 million tons, but consumption reaches 13 million tons, and soybean oil, among other products, where consumption is close to production.”
The Federation also evaluated the effects on Brazilian agricultural business products based on the “sensitivity” of American imports regarding price changes for imported goods, given that there will be 10 % of the flow on Brazilian products, which tend to be transferred to prices in the American market. “The result shows that the affected major products are specifically those in which Brazil is dominant in the American market, such as orange juices and other fruits, ethanol and sugar that are partially competing with the internal production of the United States.”
According to the initial analysis of the entity, for the Brazilian orange juice, the import of the United States with an additional tariff by 10 % compared to the current import rate will decrease from 1.004 billion liters (base 2023) to about 261 million liters. That is, the loss of export to Brazil, which number 743 million liters of orange juice that was exported in a scenario of high definitions. The current import rate of orange juice will move from 5.9 % to 15.9 %.
In ethanol, CNA has a decrease in the American demand for the Brazilian product of 41 million liters, from 337 million liters (basic shipments 2023) to 296 million liters at a rate of 2.5 % to 12.5 %.
For sugar, the effect can reach 28 thousand tons, and CNA, from Brazilian exports from 73 thousand tons (base 2023) to 45 thousand tons, with an average rate from 33 % to 43 %. In frozen beef, the decline in shipments can reach 17 thousand tons compared to 20,000 tons that were exported by 2023, due to an increase in import tariff from 26.4 % to 36.4 %.
