The last weakness of the dollar, which came R $ 5.64 last Wednesday (03/19)S. Decreased value in five monthsIt begins to bring Reactions of the economic sectors in BarraEspecially in imported products, such as foods, building materials and consumer elements. However, the Graduated effects H It varies according to the partReflecting both the advantages of consumers and the challenges faced by local merchants. The sources heard by the liberal group indicate that this phenomenon A mixture of internal and international factors Which, though promising, requires caution.
Dollars dollars: the context of the currency and the antiquities
In recent months, the US currency has recorded a row in a row, with the current exchange rate establishing the dollar R $ 5,64And arrived last Wednesday, March 19S. Decreased value since October 2024.
Make $ 6.20, which was hit during holidays, many imported products much more expensive. Now, with the currency reduction, there is an expectation that this will be translated into lower costs for sectors such as supermarkets, bakeries and retail trade.
according to Mario Titoand Economist and doctor in international relationsThe variation of the exchange rate of dynamics and global trade reflects.
“The price of the dollar is affected by the supply of this currency and demand in the international market. When the country is exporting more than it matters, the entry of dollars tends to increase, which may reduce the value of the American currency in Brazil,” explains Tito.
It adds this Brazil’s economic stability This also helped estimate the real reality against the dollar, making the country an attractive destination for international investors.
Investor He loves risk, but he hates uncertainty. That is, when a specific country passes through instability, it is very common for the investor to bring his money here. On the other hand, when the country is stable, money comes because investors come. “
For the economy, The dollar price reflects the demand for the supply market and seeks. “All that is rare is costly. That’s, when there are a few products on the market, its price tends to rise. This happens in dollars. When the dollar is expensive, this means that I spend more realistic to buy one dollar,” he says.
Archeology on supermarkets: imported products begins in the direction of autumn
George Portugalpresident Barans Association for Supermarkets (Quotes)It indicates that the decline in the dollar will have direct reactions in the prices of imported products.
“Although it is not an immediate effect, the direction Are the prices of elements like? oiland cod H wheatIt is later perceived, as it is imported now over time, as these products are bought in dollars and the currency effect is later perceived. ”
According to him, The effect will be more clear next monthAnd purchases made from the slightest quotation in the shelves are reflected.
However, according to Portugal, it is important to note this Not all products also suffer from currency contrast. Most of the foods that reach the supermarkets in Barra come from local production or nearby states, which limits the immediate impact of the dollar’s decline in prices, according to the president.
However, consumers can expect a direction Gradual In imported elements.
CEASA and local products: the minimum effect of the currency
Denivaldo pinheiroTechnical Director of CEASA (Barra supply center)It indicates that the fall of the dollar Low effect In food prices sold in the warehouse.
“CEASA mainly provides products from other parts of Brazil, and imported items do not represent up to 2 % of the total foods we sell,” Pinhaho explains.
Therefore, according to him, the reduction of the value of the dollar should not significantly affect the cost of basic foods, such as fruits, vegetables and vegetables, which depend more on supply and internal demand.
Bakery: low price expectations in wheat and derivative products
In the bakery sector, expectation is more optimistic. Andre Carvalhopresident Sindipan/PAIt is believed that the decrease in the dollar may directly reflect on the reduction in the price of wheat, the main raw materials for bread, cakes and cookies.
“With the cost of importing wheat, we hope this will translate into more affordable prices for products derived from these raw materials,” says Carvalho.
For him, if the value of the pills is reduced, this may directly affect the prices of wheat products, which will benefit the bakery and consumers sector.
About products that may contain the highest decrease in prices, Carvalho is martyred breadand Cakes H CookiesProvided that the price of wheat follows the fall of the American currency.
Building materials: The sector still feels the reflection of the dollar
While some sectors have already begun to imagine the effects of the dollar decline in the building materials market, the situation is different.
Heriveto Bastospresident ACOCOC/PA (Bura Building Trade Dealers Association)He says that the decrease in the American currency did not lead to a decrease in the prices of the sector’s products.
“The building materials market is largely affected by multinational companies, who benefit from the real to modified prices. When the currency deviates, we do not feel a relative price reduction,” says Bastos.
Retail
In retail trade, the perspective is more optimistic, although there is a degree of caution. Eduardo Yamamotopresident Sindilojas (Federation of Retail Commerce and Piem store)It assesses that the decline in the dollar can lead to cheaper imported products.
“Elements such as devices, furniture and car materials can decrease their prices, which should benefit both retailers and consumers,” says Yamamoto.
However, it warns that many retailers are still working with the inventory acquired at higher prices, which may slow down the prices.
“We direct our partners to pass the benefits of this reduction to consumers as soon as possible, to maintain the competitiveness in the market.”
Reactions in foreign trade: The smaller dollar is still attractive to export
Efferson CostaTechnical Supervisor of Dots/BaHe explains that despite the decline in the dollar, Brazil still maintains a positive commercial balance, which means that national products remain attractive in the foreign market.
“The demand for products such as soybeans, coffee and meat, for example, still maintains high prices, because the dollar, even with the fall, is still useful for international buyers,” says Costa.
Therefore, it may be to reduce the American currency Limited effect on the local market, Because the increasing external demand can maintain high prices.
“We are talking about the volatility of the American currency that may at the moment do not bring a lot of effect or not to bring a lot of expected results from the low food price,” he says.
