SAFRA 2025/26 plan: Great attention and simple budget for anxiety next year, according to analysts

Increase the 1st percentage point in The basic interest rate (SELIC)To 14.25 % a year, government plans can be frustrated Plan 2025/26 More than 2024. The evaluation is an economic agent, who claims that the cost of investing in the following crop can become higher.

both of them Ministry of Finance as Ministry of Agriculture and Tamper They mention that next year, which lasts from June 1, 2025 to May 30, 2026, they must have a standard plan, higher than the previous year. In the 2024/25 season, the government allowed 441.3 billion dollars For the plan.

“If the government wants to preserve Crop plan A large and low interest rate, it will be necessary to allocate more money from the budget, which is not yet available. For this, the resources should be withdrawn from other areas, which we know can be a major challenge. ” Gilhery of Syria BastosFGV AGRO coordinator.

The final report for The annual budget bill (PLOA) 2025,, The Congress voted on Thursday, 20, does not stipulate a strengthening in the values ​​allocated to these operations by the Ministry of National Treasury. So, The resources remained at a price of 15.03 billion dollarsUntil last year.

From Bastos, with the high cost of capital, there is a ripples in the agricultural business sector, where many companies and industry groups can be transferred to financial stress mode. “This is bad for the entire agricultural chain, because the increase in the interest rate ends with the effect on all stages of this series,” the coordinator says.

S. Crop planThe main general agricultural policy in Brazil depends on credit lines supported to finance agricultural production and support farmers in obtaining inputs, seeds, machines and equipment. When interest rates are high, the cost of credit increases even for subsidized lines.

This is because although the government provides less attention to the producers, The basic interest rate Directly affects the profitability of these lines. With high interest rates, financial institutions can transfer some of these costs to the agricultural sector, making financing more expensive and more difficult to reach.

“The severity of the impact depends on the amount of resource matrix that depends on market sources or government: the adult producers are already adapted at a higher cost; it will remain a small backed wrestling,” he says, he says, he says Jose Carlos wonLegal Adviser, former Minister of Agricultural Policy and former Agricultural Business Director at Panco de Brazil.

According to VAZ, there is a direct impact on public accounts, as the government will need to spend more on the equation of rural credit rates for young and medium producers, as well as investment operations and support for production cooperatives.

Overal economy scenario

The problem, however, in the overall economy scenario. In addition to high interest rates, the government is trying to implement various measures to alleviate the increase in Food priceAnd a position referred to by Planalo Palace as one of the main reasons for President Louise Insio’s popularity.

With a more expensive crop for the product, costs can be transferred to the final consumer, which may face The highest food prices.

He said that access to credit has become increasingly difficult, especially for young and medium producers who depend on financing to finance the crop, and invest in machinery and technology. Follow the production costs high, which presses the profitability of the producers. ” And my loyalty is ArodaPanco Plante President.

In the evaluation of David Telio, director of the new financial structures for Terramagna Even in the face of a scenario Great attentionThe government may find some exits, such as tax exemption and guarantee of financial institutions.

“The solution to alleviate the scenario of high costs and credit restrictions is the IOF government, all financing operations that involve the agricultural business chain. In the private credit market, the national treasury can provide a guarantee of the first losses of banks that are the financing of agricultural business, which reduces credit credit restrictions.

According to the manager, by exempting the tax on financial operations (IF) in the financing related to the agricultural industrial chain – which includes from agricultural production to the transformation and marketing of products – the government will reduce the cost of this financing, which makes credit cheaper for producers and businessmen in the sector.

The guarantee of losses would offer the coverage of the first financial losses if the financing is not paid, which reduces the risks to banks.

Some political actors are filled to go to the proposals of the Ministry of Agriculture and Tamunction (MAP) for a larger crop plan in the next season. For example, the state of Parana suggested a value R $ 597.1 billion To cover the needs of credit, investments and guarantee for producers.

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