The Ministry of Finance increased its drop to the Independent National Consumer Index (IPCA) from 2025 to 5.0 % – higher than the target ceiling, from 4.5 % – in the Macrofisical bulletin issued on Monday by the Economic Policy Secretariat (SPE). The projection was 4.9 % in the previous bulletin, March, and 4.8 % in the “2024 Document Retrophone and what could be expected from 2025”, published in February.
“The change reflects small surprises in the differences in the index in March, as well as the marginal changes in the expectations of the coming months,” said Sabi. According to the honesty, in the scenario that was considered, the low inflation is noticed regularly from September.
For the year 2026, IPCA’s drop has been relatively fixed, advancing from 3.5 % to 3.6 % within the targeted interval for inflation. “Since 2027, it is expected that inflation will be converging to the center of the target,” he said.
For the 2025 National Consumer Index (INPC), SPE dropping increased from 4.8 % to 4.9 %, while A for the general price index – internal availability (IGP -DI) decreased from 5.8 % to 5.6 %.
Spe pointed out that food inflation went from 7.1 % in February to 7.9 % in April. During this period, according to the bulletin, it is worth the decrease in the shrinkage of potatoes and the largest coffee enlargement. The highest prices of tomatoes, milk and dairy products also contributed to increasing food inflation in February until April. “These increases were partially compensated by low fruit enlargement, mainly due to the low papaya prices and rice shrinkage,” he said.
Despite the increase in food inflation in the accumulated in twelve months, some model products for the Brazilian dish have been recorded from the beginning of the year until April, when the Secretariat was collected. Highlighting the low prices of rice, beans, and soybean oil, and the frequency of the standard grain crop; Olive oil, related to temporary withdrawal of import definitions. “From January to April, livestock and pig prices also recorded the fall, although they are less,” he said.
SPE expectations for INPC were updated from 2025 to 4.9 %, compared to 4.8 % in the last pharynx bulletin. The expectations for 2026 moved from 3.4 % to 3.5 %. IGP-DI projection decreased from 5.8 % to 5.6 % this year, and reached 4.9 % in 2026, compared to 4.4 % in the previous document.
