The year following the tragedy: RS climate disasters will be 5 times more, says the study

A recent study on National Water Agency (Ana) He revealed that the climatic disasters similar to that destroyed Rio Grande Do Sul in 2024 should become more frequent in the coming years.

It was released about a year after the largest climate disaster in the state, the research “Floods in Rio Grande de Sol: lessons, challenges and paths for a flexible future” Provides data and expectations on behavior Completely complete in the region.

The first discovery, not surprising but it foreshadows the risk, is related to the frequency of these extremist events. According to the study, This happened on average every 50 years, it should now happen every 10 years – With greater severity.

This is because, according to mathematical models and historical monitoring, Gaucho Rivers flows It tends to increase by about 20 % of the current maximum, which will require cities air conditioning, especially the most vulnerable.

In this scenario, Rio Grande Do Sul tends to be the Brazil region with the largest increase in the frequency and intensity of the floods, and the report enhances.

The result of both climate change, cWaiting that the year 2024 was the most hot year in history And the temperatures of the beginning of this year already indicate this The maximum of 1.5 ° C of the Paris Agreement It can be overcome, as well as by They are A citizen from the state, characterized by Water gatherings Fast effect.

The most vulnerable cities

The study expectations indicate that cities such as Porto Alegre, Jiba, and Edurado de Sol, in the urban area of ​​the state capital, will have to have Bilotas and Rio Grande, in the south of the state, facing water levels to one meter higher than the maximum current protection.

In the valleys and Mountainous areasand PIOS like Taquari and Jacuí It can rise up to three meters more than the current limit In extremist events. Therefore, it emphasizes the research and the need to change the size ProtectionCom DamAnd gates and ships.

The report says: “The reassessment of these parameters is not optional, but there is an immediate need to expand the scope of hydraulic works, and to create effective alert systems and ensure the feasibility of projects in a scenario where the maximum climate becomes more frequent and intense.”

Adaptation is late

Despite the need to adapt, The RS government was published only last Monday28, h decree To use the engineering project update for Eldorado Do Sul, at an expected cost of $ 531 million, is paid with federal resources. The competition will be in May 13.

However, the bureaucracy imposes its rhythm: The winner will have 180 days to submit the workThe next step will be Engineering projects And clarification Environmental studies Before business – mandatory steps before starting any material work.

Practically, this means that The residents of the Dorado It will pass, at least, Two others Severe rain courses Not Structural protection.

Another sensitive issue is Housing. balance National Union of Municipalities (CNM) He indicated, in August 2024, that Rain destroyed 9300 housing Another 104,300 drew.

Almost a year later, many families remain in a temporary positionAnd living in institutional shelters, relatives or often temporary, inappropriate houses.

Flood effect 2024

Of the 497 Rio Grande de Sol municipality, 478 was affected by the 2024 catastropheWith nearly 2 million and 400,000 people affected.

More than 15,000 square kilometers were immersed, with disturbing human and social losses. She was 183 confirmed deaths and 27 missingIn addition to 806 wounds. Exposure flood Causing 15 thousand cases registered from Al -Buraimi disease.

almost 146,000 people were displaced And more than 50 thousand were homeless. The state’s economy suffered from a major blow, with estimated damage to billions of reception, including agricultural losses, the closure of industries, The damage to the infrastructure and the interruption of basic services such as transportation, education and health.

Pleasing to avoid emergency

Anna’s report is a clear indication: It’s time to adapt now. Although there is no unique solution to Disaster preventionThe decision -making process must consider urgently A set of measurements.

From resettlement of societies in safe areas, to setting weaknesses, implementing hybrid infrastructure and integrating climate effects as an increase in risk in structural projects.

According to the study, systems from DrainageProtection structures, DamsAnd bridges and roads and Water supply systems Energy will be affected directly and need Reassessment.

One of the most intense and frequent rain forecasts, with Increase the maximum flowThe study warns of the requirements Also review infrastructure project teachersSetting extremist events a year ago as a reference for all definitions.

A look at local academic knowledge

It requires the complexity of extremist events Multiple disciplines In this sense, the report states that the developed knowledge is in Local universities It was essential to respond to catastrophic situations as they were revealed, and to allow Real time actions.

This integration is between Scientific research E Crisis Management The report also clarifies the importance of investments in monitoring and modeling.

2024 tragedy in Rio Grande de Sol is not just an event in the past, but An indicator about the future of the climate in the region. And this future, according to the research, has already started speaking.

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