International events in recent weeks obligate us to think about various topics. One of them is undoubtedly the influence of all these geopolitical and geographical movements Climate.
What is the impact on international agreements and obligations aimed at combating and mitigating Global warming? What will be from Paris Agreement And your goals? What are the goals that are not possible or committed?
The Paris Agreement was born lame and was dying and needed to revive. But the recent events, especially the position and consequences of the American president at the global level, were eventually stopped by the recovery machine, which is now awaiting a miracle.
Failure experience Protoluko quiotoin view of Empty effect Regarding climate indicators, he should have known that a new climatic agreement, such as Paris, should be subject to the guarantee of implementation and strict compliance with distributors.
It should have been prevented measures and strategies to reduce the impact of potential crises and regional and global conflicts. It was well known that the natural resource dispute, in particular RareBecause they do not reach everyone at the speed that is consumed, that would cause wars and geological conflicts, which questions the strict compliance of the goals Mitigation climate.
Medium and long -term geological excuses the same, from then from countries like Russia and China, have indicated additional difficulty for multilateral cooperation and international partnership required by the Paris Agreement. On the other hand, insufficient measures and solutions were defined for very ambitious goals On the text program for Carbon removal.
The term of President Donald Trump came first in the United States, which started in 2016, with his withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. Then Covid-19, which had a beneficial effect on reducing emissions, but with the devastating effects on the global economy.
After that, as did not happen in the second period of Trump, the second invasion of Ukraine came recently by Russia, as well as the various local and regional conflicts that were sharpened. Now we have an open war in rare land hunting. Ursula von der Layen began his speeches last year against China, and now continues the intention of the American President for intentions regarding Ukraine, Joelland and Canada.
Gradually, similar to what actually happened with Kyoto ProtocolThere were dropouts, despite the decline, and the deviations that prevent the Paris Agreement from the ability to reach a good port. For example, successive ads for Increased investment in the revision of oil Reducing investment in renewable energy sources by large oil companies.
On the one hand, the resistance was from some of the main pollutants, such as China, India and Russia, as well as boycotting the oil industry, and the late commitment to the maritime and air transport sector to the Paris Agreement, resistance. In the same manner, financial support for developing countries in order to remove carbon and the background of losses and climate damage did not reach the necessary levels (The United States has just retired), Which makes it impossible to help transmit energy and adaptation with climate change in the most vulnerable countries.
On the other hand, the European Union, which includes only about 6.6 % of global emissions, despite the known difficulties of energy transmission, was able to reduce emissions by 1.9 % per year, much less than what was required. The United States, such as the European Union and the United Kingdom, and despite Trump’s first state, maintained the direction of 1.2 % reduction in emissions in 2005 and 2023.
Global oil production until October 2024 (103.3 million barrels per day), with an increase of 5.8 % compared to 2015 and 2.1 % compared to 2019
doctor
Without developing countries, due to lack of financing, and emerging economies that have been postponed after 2030, the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom and some other OECD countries.
The latest events lead us to believe that without the United States, it is in line with the global strategy to combat climate change, the European Union and its allies will remain with an additional contribution in China. However, if we analyze the current situation, we can notice that Europe will also fail in failure by 90 % of emissions until 2040.
The last investment declaration of 800 billion euros in reinforcing Europe, which adds 500 billion from Germany, in addition to 230 billion from China and many others in the United Kingdom, but also from Russia itself and Ukraine, adding other countries, such as Canada, South Korea, Japan, Australia and most of them, Israel, and will make it some accounts to assess the far possibility to continue to obtain hope in the “resurrection” of the Paris Agreement.
We fix ourselves in Europe and take a joint investment, including the United Kingdom, within 1.5 billion euros. Let’s admit that this investment value will generate a modest return from 3 to 4 euros for the next twenty euros. Although I know the severity Carbon From the military industry it will be higher than the average global value, we will recognize relatively low values from 200 to 250 grams of carbon dioxide per euro. In these assumptions, this long -term European investment will have an effect of about 1.9 billion tons of carbon dioxide. This 20 -year distribution is an average increase from 2.1 to 3.3 % over the annual European emissions. Given that the European Union is more than the UK reducing joint annual emissions by 2.3 %, with the investment of military armaments this reflection of the rates of reducing emissions at a value ranging from -0 to +1 % per year. Which, to compensate for the deviation of what is necessary, will require accelerated energy transmission, with the convergence of carbon intensity over the next twenty years to values less than 50 grams of carbon dioxide per euro spends. Simply impossible!
In light of the emissions of 2023, the European Union, in addition to the United Kingdom, will reduce its emissions by 2030 by a rate of 3.9 % to the year to achieve a 55 % reduction in emissions compared to 2005. Even without this motivation of emissions resulting from military reinforcement in Europe, we were already in a sign of step. From what can only be expected for the worse.
Without the contribution of the United States, which is worth 13 % of global emissions, China by 31 % and India by 8.1 % (Russia with only 4.8 %), the insufficient weight of 7.5 % of Europe, even with the miracle, will not make a difference in the most likely failure of the Paris Agreement.
Rip (Peace for your soul).
