The third political force arrives, with a great margin for the liberal initiative, which appears in fourth place. Block, in fifth position, is the most voted left game. Montenegro is the favorite for the prime minister, who has an advantage of almost 15% over Pedro Nuno Santos.
Luís Montenegro seems, for now, having gone unharmed political storm Provided by the Spinumviva business, the family business that created and was forced to transfer to the children’s sphere after suspicions of illegalities and conflicts of interest arose.
According Consul by consultmark2 for Euronews and Sunrisewhich measures the intentions of Portuguese voting and after the outbreak of the political crisis, the Democratic Alliance (AD), a coalition formed by PSD and CDS-PP, is the first, with 32.1%, followed by very close to the PS, which brings together 28% of the Portuguese preference. That is, the advantage of the central-right coalition in power against the Socialists is still within the margin of error of 4% of this survey.
The arrival is the third political force, which includes 16.5% of the voting intentions, with a great margin in relation to the liberal initiative, which appears in the fourth position (7.7%).
The left block is fifth with 3.4%, slightly ahead of the CDU, which is still above 3%. The free appears in seventh with 2.4%, the PAN being the party with the intention of lower voting (0.6%).
The result of the survey is in line with the expectations of the Portuguese with respect to the electoral result of May 18.
AD is seen as the probable winner of things with the relative majority (37.7%). There is a triumph of the PS, also with a relative majority (23.6%), and for the Portuguese, the victory of any of the largest parts with an absolute majority is very unlikely.
Montenegro is the favorite for the prime minister
Luís Montenegro is the best candidate located for the position of Prime Minister, according to the ConsultMark 2 survey, giving the preference of 41.9% of respondents.
Despite the wear and tear that was submitted after the news about Spinumviva, the Management Head of Administration can advance to the socialist rival, which is the second most mentioned name (27.4%).
André Ventura, president of arrival, is in third place with 11.6%.
Possible coalitions
Portuguese understand that AD should not seek the arrival (68.4%) as a coalition partner, even if they need to guarantee a majority in Parliament. The scenario of convergence of positions between Montenegro and Ventura is defended by 25.9% of respondents.
The Portuguese are not in favor of the reissue of the magnitude if the results allow the formation of a leftist majority in the Assembly of the Republic.
47.5% say no to the coalition of PS with the leftist parties, while 43.9% approve a solution to the image of what was achieved by António Costa after the 2015 legislatures, which now joins free.
Most have already decided to vote
There are still more than two months for the first legislative elections, but most of the Portuguese already have the defined vote.
53.2% say they already know what parties will vote on May 18, and there are still 46.8% undecided.
High influx
The political life of the country has been marked by great instability with Portugal that lives in the third legislative elections in three years. The moment is clarification and the Portuguese show the desire to return to the polls.
ADVERTISINGA clear majority of 84.5% says they intend to vote on May 18 against only 4.4% to assume that they will refrain.
Health and housing are priority issues
The situation experienced in the health sector, and in particular in the public system (NHS), is the problem that most concern the Portuguese (36.7%) at the beginning for the next electoral act. Shortly after the house arrives (28.3%), with the Portuguese apprehensive compared to high income and interest.
On the other hand, and despite the recent episodes of violence, insecurity is at the end of the list of the main problems of Portugal. Immigration is not seen as a pressing theme (9.8%).
Technical Archive
Opinion study by consultmark 2, Market Studies and Fieldwork, LDA for the Nascer Do Sol/Euronews newspaper.
ADVERTISINGUniverse: individuals greater than 18 residents in Portugal. Sampling of quotas by gender, age and region variables, based on censuses 2021. The sample had 594 effective interviews: 287 men and 307 women; 123 between 18 and 34 years, 325 between 35 and 64 and 146 for 65 and over; North 192, Center 91, West and Tagus Valley 51, Greater Lisbon 116, Setúbal Peninsula 44, Alentejo 25, Algarve 35, Ra Azores 20 and Ra Madeira 20.
Technique: Telephone interviews (CATI).
Field work dates: It took place between March 6 and 12, 2025.
Answer rate: 58.9%.
ADVERTISINGMaximum sampling error for a 95%confidence interval: + 4.0%.
Responsibility of the study: consultmark2, market and labor studies, LDA, under the technical direction of José Constantino Costa.
