There is an important doubt to clarify in the answer that the European Commission is preparing against the United States For the enormous rates that Donald Trump intends to announce this Wednesday: will the antibody tool be released with its traditional partner? The president of the same union manager clarified that she considers him. He did not say it openly, but this Tuesday he left no margin of error before the Eurocamara: “Europe has many letters (to respond), from trade to technology through the size of our market. In this force our response is built to replicate firmly. All the tools are on the table.” “All tools”, of course, include this regulation, in force since the end of 2023, which some see as a Nuclear weapon In a commercial war and others as an innovative tool that greatly expands the chances of retaliation “in the face of economic coercion by third countries”. Although these words do not mean that Brussels will finally use it, because the legal doubts are there and, in fact, Von der Leyen stressed that “the announcement of tomorrow will be carefully analyzed (for this Wednesday) to calibrate the answer”.
The Commission has announced its intention to create a law that would allow him to respond to economic aggressions from third countries at the beginning of 2021, shortly after Donald Trump left the White House at the end of his first term. “World uncertainty is increasing, fueled by political and geo -economic tensions. Instead of resorting to international cooperation and multilateral governance, unilateralism is increasing, with the consequent alteration or avoidance of multilateral institutions”, the Commission has therefore justified. The reference to Trump and what happened in his first administration was clear. He also spoke of China – this time openly – that communication he announced A “revision of commercial policy, open, sustainable and firm”: “Shows that he has aspirations all over the world and applying a model of capitalism to a single state, has changed the foundations of the economic and political order of the world”.
Less than two years later, the regulation of the antibody instrument that Brussels now proposes to use unilateral tariff threats in the United States has already been designed. These are its main features:
When is it activated and who does it?
The rule of the community clarifies from its first article that is applied “In case of economic coercion by a third country” and allows the EU to respond “as a last resource”, to that aggression. This is the last bullet that the union is reserved responds to the logic of the regulation, which makes it very clear in its exposure of reasons that “it is desirable” to use “all available means of dialogue with the third country”. If this path was not possible, then it is the European Commission to which it is responsible for activating the process.
What is understood by economic coercion?
The legal definition is rather wide, since it is meant that there is “economic coercion when a third country applies or threatens to apply a measure that affects trade or investments”. To evaluate whether this situation, the Commission and the EU Council will have to evaluate the intensity, frequency, gravity, breadth and extent of the measure adopted by the third country; If it interferes in the sovereignty of a Member State or twenty -seven; If the step taken from the third country is based on some legitimate concerns and if you have tried to solve the problem of “good faith”.
Here it would be the legal Achille heel to activate the tool in response to rates which, for damage and unilateral, seem to be general. The coercion would cross the United States to distort the will of a Member State or EU as a whole. It could adapt perfectly when Washington decides to impose rates of 25% on the countries that import crude oil from Venezuela or those with a digital tax. Furthermore, if the explicit objective was that great American technology avoided the application of digital market regulations or digital services or, as Trump, ending VAT seemed to ask for.
There would be more legal doubts if Washington finally supports a general rate for the entire world of 20% or 25% without any discrimination and without connecting it to a political objective imposed to other countries or areas such as the EU itself.
Are there any deadlines before taking measurements?
From the moment the investigation is officially launched to determine if there is coercion, the recommended period in the regulation speaks of a maximum of four months. But according to writing it does not seem to be a period closed to exceptions. “The exam will normally not last more than four months.” During this process, there are also guarantees for the third state, which must be provided diplomatically that it is under investigation.
Who makes decisions?
The proposal is based on the European Commission. The Union executive is the institution with official, legislative and action response. However, the decision must be adopted by the EU Council, or the Member States, by qualified majority: 55% of EU countries which adds at least 65% of the population.
What measures do they allow the adoption of the antibody instrument?
The replicas that this mechanism allows are always of commercial channel, since they are those that fall within the powers that the treaties grant the commission and the entire union. There are others, such as the control of exports (to veto the sale of certain products to third countries or investments to have safety implications), which are not contemplated in these regulations because they are national skills, although by brussels recommendations they can be made. In these commercial returns, rates, imports of imports and exports, impositions that affect the trade of services, the rights of finance or to intellectual property or their commercial exploitation enter (this is one of the company tools that use larger technological companies more).
