The World Bank reduced its economic growth forecasts in 2025 for Mexico in the middle of what it called “the highest levels of commercial uncertainty in a decade”.
The international financial institution based in Washington now provides that the Mexican economy will stagnate in 2025 with GDP growth of 0%.
The forecasts are 1.5 percentage points lower than that of the World Bank in January in its global report on economic prospects.
The new forecasts are included in a Copy in advance of a chapter of the next World Bank report “Organized crime and violence in Latin America and the Caribbean”, which will be released next Monday.
Among 29 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (lake), only Haiti should record an economic result worse than Mexico this year. The World Bank plans that the economy of the Pays of the Caribbean in difficulty will contract by 2.2% in 2025.
At the other end of the scale, it provides that the Guyana economy will increase by 10% this year and that Argentina will record an economic expansion of 5.5%.
The demotion of its growth forecasts by the World Bank for Mexico comes just after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reduced its prospects for the second economy in Latin America. The IMF now provides that Mexico GDP will contract 0.3% this yearA decreased revision of 1.7 percentage points compared to its January forecasts.
The Mexican economy increased by 1.5% per year in 2024.
“A more difficult external scenario”
The World Bank has also reduced its growth prospects for the Mexican economy in 2026. It now forecasts growth of 1.1% next year, down compared to a forecast of 1.6% in January.
In the chapter “The State of the Lac Région” of its next report, the World Bank said that the prospects of the region “have become more uncertain, because modest progress on the internal front are composed by a more difficult external scenario”.
“… the external environment … has changed considerably during the six months which followed the economic review of Latin America and the Caribbean (Lacer) of October 2024, with short and long -term consequences,” said the financial institution.
“… the apparent change towards higher prices by the United States throws uncertainty The narration projectThe practice of providing it with offshore operations in neighboring or friendly countries, and access to the global market more generally, “said the World Bank.
“… Even before the increased uncertainty introduced by growing American prices, there was evidence that the region was potentially missing the boat to share,” said the bank.
In the three months that followed that Donald Trump began his second term as president, the US government imposed prices on steel, aluminum and cars made in Mexico as well as Mexican products not covered by the USMCA free trade pact.
The Mexican government is currently trying to negotiate exemptions from steel, aluminum and car prices, which the United States has imposed on imports from around the world.
The World Bank said: “It is impossible to know where the new tariff regime will be settled”.
For the moment, “the higher prices and the highest levels of commercial uncertainty in a decade, hinder the region’s additional integration into the American supply chains, as well as for the implementation of jobs in the export-related industries,” he said.
The World Bank stressed that Mexico recently signed a new trade agreement with the European UnionAnd said that “represented a step towards the diversification of the markets”.
However, he added that “emerging challenges require resolving a program now several decades in infrastructure, education, regulations, competition and tax policy to increase productivity and the approval of the region’s economies in the face of new uncertainty.”
Sheinbaum disputes the World Bank forecasts
During her press conference Thursday morning, President Claudia Sheinbaum expressed her disagreement with the economic forecasts of international organizations such as The World Ban, the IMF and the OECD, which is also predicting that the Mexican economy will contract this year.
International financial organizations “have economic models that do not take into account what we are doing”, ” She said.
Sheinbaum said that if their models establish that “there will be inflation and economic recession in the United States”, they say “there will be (also) the recession in Mexico” due to “economic integration” between the two countries.
She said that international financial organizations “do not take into account” that “everything is not yet determined” with regard to the trade relations of the United States with the rest of the world, and “particularly” its relationship with Mexico, which sends more than 80% of its exports to its neighbor in the North.
Back to his first complaint, Sheinbaum said that international organizations did not consider Mexico planThe ambitious economic initiative of the federal government to develop the economy by stimulating national industry and by building new infrastructure projects, among other measures.
The World Bank declared in its report that public investment in Mexico “supported the expansion of global investment and production of production in 2023” – – When the Mexican economy increased by 3.2% – “But as he lost momentum in 2024, this stimulus was weakened.”
Even if major projects such as the Maya train and the new Pemex refinery on the Tabasco coast are now widely completed, Sheinbaum estimates that his government’s investment in other infrastructure projects – including highways, rails, water and housing – will help stimulate growth in Mexico.
“If there was no public investment, there would probably be the reduction in economic growth” that the IMF provides, “she said on Tuesday.
On Thursday, Sheinbaum also underlined the economic benefits of private investment.
The World Bank and the IMF “probably not take into account” 3.6 billion US dollars that the company brewed Grupo Modelo will invest in Mexico Or other private investments currently in the pipeline, she said.
Sheinbaum said the Ministry of Finance – which provides that the Mexican economy develop 1.5-2.3% this year – “Takes into account all these variables” and therefore offers “a completely different result”.
“… Mexico’s economy is strong and the entire cabinet works so that Mexico’s plan becomes a reality,” she added.
Economic data namely for Mexico
By the editor -in -chief of Mexico News Daily Peter Davies ((Protected by e-mail)))
