Politics

14 years later, Syria continues to a crossroads: where does the country go?

This entry was originally published in Arabic

14 years after the revolution, Syria remains in the conflict, economic decline and forced movements. In March 2025, the constitutional declaration of Al Sharaa sparked the dispute by defining Islamic jurisprudence as a source of legislation and religion of the head of state.

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On March 15, 2011, the Syrians came out in the city of Daraa in some events that marked the beginning of a popular revolt against the regime of President Bashar al Assad. I am Peaceful protests have become quickly in a Bloody conflictWith an escalation of violence and the appearance of armed factions, including extremist groups.

The international actors were involved in the conflict, addressing Syria In Scenario of complex regional and international conflicts. Today, 14 years later, the country has experienced fundamental transformations in political, economic and social planes, the last of which was the signature of the new constitutional declaration by the president of the provisional government, Ahmad al Sharaa, which redefines the contours of the future Syrian state.

Of protests to the armed conflict

The Syrian revolution began with claims of democratic reforms, but became extreme violence from the regime and various armed groups that fought for the entire Syrian territory from North to South. The country was divided between controlled areas from him regimeareas controlled by opposition and the areas controlled by Extrete organizations Like Isis and Al-Nusra, who became Hayat Tahrir al-Sham under the guidance of Abu Mohammad at Joulani (at the moment Ahmad al Sharaa), Before its influence decreased following international interventions.

With the Russian intervention In 2015followed by the Lebanese Hezbollah And other armed groups, the Syrian regime resumed control of most of the areas that were under the control of the armed opposition, benefiting from Russian aerial coverage and of Iranian military support. However, the war has not been completely resolved.

There are still areas outside the control of Damascusespecially in Syria northernwhere the opposition factions supported by Türkiye are found in Idlib and in the country of Aleppo (North -ovest) and the Syrian democratic forces (FD) supported by the United States to the east.

The economic situation: unprecedented collapse

In recent years, the Syrian economy has been in a constant collapse stateWith the Syrian pound that has lost more than 99% of its value since 2011. The daily life of a Syrian citizen has quickly become a real suffering due to Mass inflationThe lack of purchase energy and the constant cuts of electricity and water.

Food prices have shot e More than 90% of the population lives below the poverty threshold. Las Western penaltiesThe management of the economy by the regime and the lack of investments also contributed to worsening the situation, while Russian and Iranian efforts to support the regime did not provide effective solutions to save the economy.

On the other hand, the Forced displacement of the population, through military operations or economic strangulation, has caused important demographic changes. Millions of people fled the country and the refugee crisis has become one of the greatest humanitarian crises of modern times.

Los Syrians in the diaspora They face legal and social problems in asylum countries, in the middle of the growing pressure to return to their country despite the lack of security guarantees, even after the fall of the regime. The country has witnessed sectarian violence, with Islamist militants who have taken control of the government, with the country not completely stabilized at the safety level and with unofficial armed groups that remain able to commit Violent acts against citizens of the country for reasons of revenge, sectarian or ethnic.

Continuous movement and international pressure

With a brutal war that lasted almost 14 years, the case of the Syrian displaced people became one of the most complex. The number of Syrian refugees has achieved more than 6.5 milliondistributed in Türkiye, Lebanon, Jordan and EuropeWhile Crafted inside Syria They suffer from catastrophic humanitarian conditions.

Despite the pressure exerted by some countries for the return of refugees, the absence of a global political agreement that restores stability and security, as well as the lack of basic services, do Your return is almost impossible. The United Nations and Human Rights Organizations continue to warn the return of refugees to Syria Without real guarantees For their security, but many governments, especially in Europe and Türkiye, are advancing towards the imposition of rigorous measures to the Syrians, forcing them to return or deport them gradually.

The constitutional declaration establishes the Islamic jurisprudence

On March 13, 2025, while instability continued, Ahmad al Sharaa, president of Interim of Syria, announced the signature of the “Constitutional declaration“This defines the general picture of the new political system in Syria, in an attempt to establish a legal basis for the transition period.

The declaration raised a Large controversy Due to its inclusion of an article that establishes that the Islamic jurisprudence It will be the main source of legislation in the country, as well as specifying Islam as a religion of the head of state. The defenders of the declaration claim that reflects the identity of the Syrian society and preserves the prevailing religious values, while other parts, in particular secular movements and religious minorities, They oppose To her, supporting him perpetuates the religious character of the state Instead of building an supplementary civil system.

At regional level, Some countries They accepted the declaration as a step towards the end of the chaos and the establishment of the stabilitywhile other international powers, such as European Unionthey consider it a obstacle for the construction of a democratic and pluralistic state.

Where does Syria go?

In the fourteenth anniversary of the Syrian revolution, the country is still immersed in a profound instability. No real political agreement has been achieved, while the economic and social situation deteriorates from day to day. With the internal political division and external interventions, Syria remains on a crossroads between the reconstruction under the influence of regional and international powers or continuation of the chaos in which he has lived for years.

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In addition to everything above, from 6 March 2025, the country has witnessed Sectarian violence on the Syrian coastin which the members of the security forces were initially objectives of groups that supported the old regime and subsequently the same security forces and other groups replied by committing massacre This caused the death of hundreds of people from the minority of Alauita, members of other minorities and Sunni Muslim communities.

In relation to these events, Ahmed al Sharaa format a National Research Committee To determine the responsibilities in order to adopt the punitive measures necessary against the managers of the violations, but their opponents say that the president of the transition is soft with the authors of these crimes, whose photos of the murders appeared on social networks. He himself and other officials of his administration appear in the videos with leaders who incite violence against Alauitas and religious minorities.

At the same time, At Sharaa And the leader of Syrian democratic forces (FDS), which represent the Kurd In the east of the country, they signed a Historical agreement To integrate the militants and coordinate the political administration in the next phase, which increases the hopes of the Syrians that the country remains unified in the face of the separatist trends that have affirmed in previous years.

THE Israeli expansion in southern Syria After the fall of the Al Assad regime, it is a reason for great concern for the Syrians. The Israeli forces advanced dozens of kilometers and occupied strategic points on Mount Herm and in the provinces of Quneitra and Suwayda. Israeli officials have declared that they will remain indefinitely there and that they will protect the minority, which constitutes the majority of the population in Sweida and the Syrian objective occupied.

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The lack of stability, the difficult economic situation, the Israeli incursion continues, the dozens of direct incursions against the assets of the dissolved Syrian army and those of the Syrian armed forces, the internal social tension and the concern for the guidelines of the first steps of the new leaders The fears on the future of Syria increaseAfter 14 years of suffering, pain and destruction and millions of deaths, wounded and displaced.

The country runs through a very winding road e progress on a thin wire Among the regional fires, the winds of foreign ambitions and internal concerns, while their people continue to aspire to freedom and dignity for which he marched 14 years ago.

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