Building a cleansing nuclear force from scratch is not an easy task, but with the distance of the United States, the idea began to resurface.
“Poland You have to pursue the most advanced skills, including nuclear weapons And modern unconventional weapons, “said Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, before the Parliament of his country at the beginning of this month”. not for the war“.
While the Trump administration indicated it It is essentially withdrawing from the protection of EuropeTusk’s declaration seemed to suggest a possible turning point towards the proliferation of nuclear weapons in Europe, a decision that differs from decades of European politics.
While doubts about the commitment of the United States persist Your role as Guarantor for Nuclear Security from Europe, China is expanding its nuclear arsenal. And Russia, which maintains the largest arsenal of nuclear heads in the world, repeatedly invokes the threat of using them to warn NATO and the EU that are not directly involved in Ukraine.
The general panorama raises Two difficult questions. How can Europe maintain nuclear deterrence on continental scale? And is there the possibility that other countries join the Nuclear Club?
Although some European states have with some of the elements necessary to develop An independent nuclear armament capacity, experts claim that the possibilities that Another European state becomes nuclear They are scarce.
Start from scratch
According to Fabian Rene Hoffmann, researcher of the Nuclear Project of Oslo, even if one of the European powers of NATO was willing to develop their nuclear weapons instead of simply hosting them, It would be in an uncertain starting point.
“The main problem addressed by the European countries is that either they do not show the civil nuclear infrastructures necessary to launch a program of Nuclear weaponsor, if they have civil nuclear infrastructures, This is very “proliferation resistant”“He said ‘Euronews.
“For example, Finland and Sweden only have light water reactorswhich are not suitable for the production of plutonium suitable for weapons. In addition, none of these countries have chemical portment plants, necessary to separate the desired isotopes by unwanted in the production of fixed material.
“So even if they wanted to launch a nuclear program, They could not do it with their current infrastructureat least in the short term. This is the case of all states that do not have nuclear weapons in Europe with a civil nuclear program right now, “he explained.
Hoffman recognized a questionable exception: Germany. “Although it no longer shows a significant civil nuclear infrastructure, it has a large reserve of uranium highly enriched for research purposes,” he said. “Theoretically, this arsenal could be reused in some effort to create physical material suitable for weapons.” “But even then It would only reach about 5-15 nuclear headsSo it would not be enough to distribute what we call a robust nuclear deterrence.
Open the nuclear umbrella
The two European nuclear powers, The United Kingdom and Francethey have to Make great decisions about his nuclear future. In the current situation, limited British dysjasion based on submarines must face an uncertain future. The fleet that transports its missiles It is aging and must be replaced And, what is even more urgent, the missiles themselves are manufactured and preserved in an American base, which means that British deterrence depends unusually on the participation of another state.
French deterrence, on the contrary,, it is larger and more independent of NATOAnd it is not limited to submarines. This means that it could “take place” anywhere in Europe, but as Hoffman explained, it is not such a simple idea as it seems.
“We should build infrastructure in host countries, Especially bunkers“He explained to” Euronews “. unfold French nuclear weapons In Germany nothing would have changed. If perhaps, they should be lined up in the states of the first line: “That is, in The countries that face Russiaincluding Poland. His comments occur after Poland said he would like American nuclear heads to be lined up on the Polish soil.
Out of shadows
After the end of the Cold War and the disappearance From the Warsaw Pact, Poland fought from Soviet nuclear weapons parked in their territory. Like most European countries, since then various international agreements have signed to limit the proliferation of nuclear weapons, including the non -proliferation treaty of nuclear weapons and the treatise on a complete prohibition of nuclear tests.
If Poland or another European state will begin to Develop your nuclear weaponsHe would abandon a rule that prevailed in the West for three decades. The world world regime highly developed has focused on the reduction for a long time The Armamenti program of North KoreaPrevent the enrichment for the production of weapons in Iran and prevent uncontrolled international flows from uranium, plutonium and components necessary to enrich a sufficient amount of both to create a practicable nuclear device.
ADVERTISINGThe prospect of a European state that develops weapons alone Has not been taken into considerationBut this does not mean that an aspiring proliferator can do it without being detected.
“None of the non -nuclear weapons of European States I would be able to proliferate in secret“Said Hoffman.” Nuclear energy in Europe They are under the rigid guarantees of the International Agency for Atomic Energy, which means that any deviation would most likely be warned.
Having said that, world organizations and supervisors responsible for the non -proliferation work They are forced to keep up With new technologies that threaten to facilitate illegal proliferation.
Economic nuclear energy
Particularly worrying is Additional production or 3D printing. The Center for Strategic and International Studies, based in the United States, warned that it could help “create volatile routes to nuclear skills and weapons”, since candidates for prolifems could avoid the usual control of control at home.
ADVERTISINGUntil now, the international non -proliferation effort has focused largely on making it difficult A “rebellious” country develops a weaponAnd in a 3D printing world, artificial intelligence and other quick development technologies, the means by which the countries proliferate illegally can change.
A historical example is important in this regard. In the middle of the century, century, South Africa of “Apartheid” began to try devices Nuclear, producing six nuclear heads that theoretically could be installed in intercontinental ballistic missiles.
The most important thing is that the country has enriched its own Uranium suitable for weapons With a method called the separation process of the vortex of Helikon, A method of high energy consumption but relatively economic which, according to some experts, could be used to enrich at least a small amount of fistible uranium today.
To date, South Africa remains the only state of history This has developed its nuclear weapons and that renounced them, abandoning their deterrence and the programs of ballistic missiles when the “Apartheid” and the Cold War ended.
ADVERTISINGBut the story of his effort of low -corpulent proliferation is a testimony of the fact that, even with an intense international control of the vital double use components e Radioactive materialsA state decided enough to build a cleansing nuclear force could theoretically find a way to do it at home.
Another thing is if one of the current European nations would take such a radical step, Potentially entering the same club of North Korea, but the behavior of the United States and Russia in the near future can be the decisive factor.
