Gold’s record records the brake on the hope of a relief of commercial tensions

Gold has retired brusciously since last week, while the world bags have undergone a rebound in the signs of A disclalad in the commercial war The world, in particular between the United States and China.

Both cash gold and future gold decreased by about 6.5% From its historic tops reached last Tuesday. It is possible that investors have started to benefit for the precious metal due to the decrease in the demand for refuge. According to the strategists of Barclays PL, The bounce of gold It is going forward compared to the foundations and seems technically stretched after the recent climb. Meanwhile, “Bloomberg” reported that the roof funds have cut their long net positions in future and gold options for more than a year.

“This could suggest that yellow metal I could suffer more fallswhich could be exacerbated by the departure of some of the weakest lengths of what has become an incredibly saturated operation “, wrote Michael Brown, a head of research on the layers of Pepperstone, underlining that the interest of the purchase It was particularly reduced to Asia.

The strength of the euro, key factor of the increase in gold in 2025

The demand for refuge activity has increased in the middle of the economic uncertainties derived from the rates of President Donald Trump. Gold, a traditional resource used to protect you against financial crises and inflationIt has exceeded the world markets, increasing by over 25% so far this year. In indirectly, the force of the euro, which also expressed the US dollar, also contributed to the rebound of the precious metal.

The feeling of “American exceptionalism” caused a strong drop in the green ticket in 2025, while the euro was significantly strengthened against the dollar as an active refuge. The Eur/USD torque has increased by 11% since the beginning of February. “The strength of the euro and, therefore, the Weakness of the US dollar It was once again a key engine of gold behavior, together with an increase Geopolitical risk This captures the tariff fears, “said the World Gold Council in a relationship.

Also the rebound of the euro Has cheated the gold For European investors, with gold purchases that have reached 1,000 million dollars (880 million euros) in Europe in March, which makes it the second largest buyer among the regions.

Short -term risks

However, gold could face a shorter decline due to several factors, such as the fading of the Feeling of risk aversionThe signs of overcompra, the risks of liquidity and the slowdown in the rhythm of the purchases of the central banks.

The main reason for the shelter of gold was the recovery of the feeling of risk after Trump said he would reduce “substantially” Rates in Chinawhich triggered a large rebound in the world stock markets. Last week, the main bags mostly cut the losses of April in the signals of a downhill in the commercial war between the United States and China. Trump’s change of position can cause a repositioning of wallets between funds and retail investors.

In second place, Short -term Gold Shotwhich usually leads to an excessive model from a technical perspective. Operators tend to collect benefits and establish short positions based on these signals and the options reflect in particular these trends.

A safe value anyway

Third, central banks and private investors can slow down the purchase pace due to Strong rebound of prices. Economic uncertainties are also likely to affect the economic accessibility of retail investors to invest in gold.

Finally, gold rebounds are generally supported by a flexible monetary policy and high liquidity conditions. However, the Inflationary risks connected to Trump rates They can lead to central banks to slow down the rhythm of their interest rates. The Trump administration is also trying to limit public spending, which probably causes a contraction in liquidity.

However, Brown hopes for gold Due to current uncertainties: “Even so, given all the uncertainty and the turmoil in other places, gold still seems A better bet as a refuge than practically anything else. ”