War in Ukraine: Russia’s pressure to relieve sanctions puts the EU into trouble

The American secretary of state Marco Rubio has spent the last few weeks to say to the European leaders, annoying His exclusion of negotiations to end the war of Russia against Ukraine, who They would have been invited to the table when time came discuss the future of sanctions. But that invitation could come before Brussels expected.

After a new tour of conversations in Saudi Arabia, the United States announced it Russia and Ukraine had committed themselves to applying a high fire Partial in “energy structures”, well below the large fire that Donald Trump had promoted. The parties also agreed to “guarantee the safety of navigation, eliminate the use of strength and avoid the use of commercial ships for military purposes in the Black Sea”, according to Washington.

The White House listed the main points of the agreement in general termsWithout notes at the foot of the page or technical details. But Moscow hurried to detail his list of requests. In its proposal, the Kremlin added five paragraphs of conditions that must be satisfied Before the so called “Initiative of the Black Sea”. The conditions require the revocation of “sanctions” and “restrictions” which, according to Russia, limit their exports of food and fertilizers all over the world, including those relating to agricultural machinery and shipping insurance.

The most remarkable question is that the Russian agricultural bank, also known as Rosselkhozbank and “other financial organizations” involved in agricultural trade They connect again to SwiftA high security system for quick money transfers. Founded in 1973, Swift is considered today The most used system of its classAnd it connects more than 11,000 institutions from over 200 countries.

Almost 50 million financial messages are sent every day. This is where the EU comes into play: Swift is a cooperative based on Hulpe (Belgium), so it is subject to EU legislation And above all, to their sanctions.

A cry of war

Until February 24, 2022, Swift had remained anonymouslywith the exception of the financial sector. But after Russian tanks will enter UkraineThe name skipped at night to international fame. The Kyiv government soon asked that Swift Russian banks were expelled, to reduce Moscow’s ability to finance their war machinery.

The acronym appeared in the banners and posters of the protests, pushing the politicians to act. The EU replied on March 2, 2022When he decided to expel seven rapid Russian shores. The measure jumped to international titles and was celebrated as a taboo break. Months later, in June, the EU agreed to retire from Swift to three other banks: Sberbank (the major of Russia), Credit Bank of Moscow and Rosselkhozbank.

“These banks are fundamental The Russian financial system And for Putin’s ability to continue war. Will consolidate the isolation of the Russian financial sector of the world system, “said the European Commission to explain The decision.

Rosselkhozbank is a state bank that provides A wide range of financial services and products For farms, which are an essential source of income for Moscow through the world sale of raw materials such as wheat, barley and corn.

Although the EU has never sanctioned Russian agricultural exports, opting instead for strong ratesThe sanctions to the Rosselkhozbank erected obstacles in payments between exporters and importers and triggered the wrath of the Kremlin, causing the collapse of the Black Sea initiative originally promoted by Türkiye and the United Nations.

This explains why Vladimir Putin took the opportunity to ask again, That sea of ​​Rosselhozbank was linked to Swift. The White House did not echo the condition, at least not explicitly. He just said the United States Would help Russia to restore its “access to the world market For agricultural and fertilizing exports, reduce maritime insurance costs and improve access to ports and payment systems for this type of transactions. “

The last part, which refers to the “payment systems for these transactions”, could Refer to Swift. But the decision does not correspond to Trump, since Swift is the EU competition. When asked to clarify the decision, the United States Department of State refused to comment.

Speaking with the press, Trump said His team will “study” the conditions raised by the Kremlin. “We are thinking about everyone right now. There are about five or six conditions. We are studying all of them,” he said.

A difficult decision

Putin’s requests have strictly put the EU. If the block refuses the call, runs the risk of infuriating TrumpWhich is very interested in guaranteeing a high fire, even if partial, to advance in its diplomatic impulse. If, on the contrary, the blockage approves the appeal and grants relief for sanctions, runs the risk of looking soft and docile, an attitude that Moscow could easily take advantage of to press in favor of new concessions.

The relief of sanctions would also be against the position of the Ukrainian president, Volodimir Zelenski, who insists this Concrete restrictions are maintained while the last war. “There must also be clear pressure and energy action of the world on Russia, more pressure, more penalties from the United States, to stop Russian attacks,” said Zelenski on Wednesday in a Message on social networks ON The last wave of Russian attacks with drones.

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The European Commission did not immediately respond to a request for comments. During a visit to Kiev for commemorating the third anniversary of the warPresident Ursula von der Leyen said that the blockage would start removing the sanctions only after seeing that Moscow made “concrete steps” towards a lasting resolution. “What we see is that the sanctions already have a huge effect on the Russian economy”, said Von der Leyen, citing “triggered the inflation” and the “spiral of interest rates”.

The appetite for the relief of sanctions is poor among diplomats, which indicate the continuous attacks of Russia against Ukraine as proof Putin does not take peace seriously. The sanctions regime was carefully built through a record of 16 packages. In Brussels they are not taken in the light cancel such a complex structure.

On the eve of A summit in ParisElíseo said that “obviously” it was not a question of lifting the sanctions, but of hardening them If Russia has not accepted the unconditional high fire that Ukraine has accepted in its conversations with the United States.

“Of course, Russians can always connect partial progress appropriately Towards a high fire to the revocation of some penalties“Said Elysee.” But for us, although Russia has not stopped the war because a peace agreement has not been reached, no guarantees to Ukraine have been assigned and war repairs have not been paid, the penalties will always continue to be a necessary tool to exercise pressure on Russia. “

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Even so, the problem is now on the table and could be difficult to ignore. According to EU standards, The sanctions must be renewed every six months unanimouslywhich means that A single Member State can make the delicate process derail. Since the possession of Trump, Hungary, an old penalty critic, has threatened twice Blocks the extension And it could do it again when the restrictions in the sector are discussed on July 31st.

“The latest EU sanctions to individuals remained because (Marco) Blond Pressed Hungary to maintain the measures. If there is no pressure, the EU sanctions regime is in great danger, “said Maria Shagina, main researcher of the Institute for Strategic Studies (IIS).

Although the approval of the EU would be necessary so that Rosselkhozbank became part of Swift, the United States could opt, as an alternative, from Send a “signal” that those who make transactions With the bank they will be exempt from legal consequences, explained Shagina.

Jan Dunin-Wasowicz, partner of Bennink Dunin-Wasowicz who recommends it Compliance with economic sanctionsHe said that Swift’s Russian request seemed designed to test Washington and Brussels at the same time. “The question is precisely if this specific request has been submitted to the EU. It does not seem that the EU is part of that discussion for now,” said Dunin-Wasowicz in “Euronews”.

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“The request for Trump Administration It could be an attempt to influence the United States press the EU to soften the measures of the community. Ultimately, the determination of the EU to keep the course could be tested and continue with its penalties. “