China is an “essential partner” to face the major challenges of our time or the “key facilitator” of Greater armed conflict on European soil since 1945? At this point, it depends only on who is asked. Donald Trump’s return The White House triggered seismic changes all over the world, forcing the nations to re -evaluate their alliances and rivalries in the desperate refuge against the policies of the president of the president.
In particular, it is overwhelming rates They have deeply disturbed governments, which now seriously consider whether commercial flows and supply chains in which they have trusted in recent decades are about to crumble overnight, causing Incalculable frog.
For the European Union, a power -oriented power and a corporate defender of the free market, Trump’s rates hit as a slap. Despite the surprise reversalFrom the White House, the block will remain subject to the basic rate of 10%. Moreover, Steel, aluminum and cars will be under a 25%tax free kick. Trump has threatened to impose multiple rates on pharmaceutical products manufactured abroad, a very precious sector for Europeans.
With the transatlantic relationships that sink at a dizzying rhythm and the increasingly prohibitive US market, Brussels is looking for economic opportunities That they can compensate, even in part, the smoothing smoothies from Trump.
China quickly emerged as a potential option. Thanks to a vast middle class and richer and, therefore, increasingly able to allow products manufactured abroad, China represents a profitable commercial partner which can provide new customers with new customers and new investments, exactly what they need in a moment of stagnation of growth in the country e political agitation abroad.
In 2023, The United States were the main destination of the products manufactured in the EU (501 900 million euros), followed by China (223.5 billion euros), second Eurostat. However, China contributed to most of the goods to the block (516.2 billion euros) after the United States (346.7 billion euros).
He was revealing that a few days after Trump appeared in the Garden de Las Rosas and revealed his car career “Mutual rates”, Ursula von der Leyen has maintained a phone call with the Chinese Prime Minister, Li Qiang, to talk about bilateral issues and the state of the world economy.
“In response to generalized disorders caused by the US tariff Europe and Chinalike two of the largest markets in the world, Support a strong and renewed commercial system, right, right and on the basis of equal conditions, “said the European Commission in his Official reading.
THE The version published by Beijing was considerably more optimistic And he highlighted a “constant growth impulse” in the ties. “China is willing to work with the European part to promote the solid and constant development of the relations between China and the EU,” said Li a von der Leyen.
The exchange, dotted with explicit criticisms of Trump’s policies (described them as “economic harassment”), immediately fueled the speculation that leaders were placing the seeds of an approach carefully.
From the Leyenthat during I amprimer The mandate led a new deletion policy from China, has softened its tone in recent months. Now, the head of the commission prefers to talk about a “Transactional” foreign policy “Compromise in a constructive way” with Beijing.
The impression of Diplomatic beam He accentuated a few days later, when the president of the Spanish government, Pedro Sánchez, flew to Beijing and met President Xi Jinping. Sánchez described China as an “essential partner” to face the challenges of modernity and asked the page to the comparison approach.
On Friday, the Commission gave further news: Brussels and Beijing agreed to study the “price commitments” option again (minimum prices) to resolve the long dispute on electric vehiclesProduct in China. This option is grown several times Last year, but was discreetly abandoned due to the lack of progress. The diplomats of the Member States, traditionally divided on how to deal with China, took note of the events, Without hurrying to transmit a verdict.
“The EU wants and must be seen as a reliable partner in the world“Said a diplomat, speaking in an anonymity condition.” In this sense, the discussion with China is evolving because China looks at us differently. I don’t think the European approach to China has completely changed, but the winds are moving. “
A clash of reality
The geopolitical winds can move, but not everyone blows in favor of China. Conte this week, Ukrainian president Volodimir Zelenski, announcementOr that his army that his army had captured Two Chinese citizens who fought with Russia in the Ukrainian territory. Subsequently he declared that his government had collected “precise data” indicated that More than 150 Chinese citizens They had joined the war on the Moscow side.
ADVERTISINGUkrainian security services say that Chinese citizens have been recruited from Russia through advertisements, even on social networks, but have not been able to verify whether the Central Government of Beijing was aware or involved in the operation.
“I think the United States should pay attention to what is happening today. And we expect this is another country that militarily supports the invasion of Russia in Ukraine – on the side of Russia. This is another after Iran and North Korea soldiers“, Verdi die.
The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs Contrades saying this The statements had no “no real base”. “Allow me to underline that the Chinese government always asks its citizens to stay away from the armed conflict areas,” said Lin Jian, spokesman for the ministry.
In Brussels, the news arrived a few hours later Von der Leyen will talk to the prime minister thereAlmost like a blow of reality that has turned off the fervor of a possible approach.
ADVERTISINGIn the last three years, the EU has been dismayed by the Pachino non -intervention position in the large -scale invasion of Ukraine, which constantly refers as a “crisis” and from “Without Limits” Association established between XI Jinping and Vládimir Putin. XI should participate in the celebrations of 9 May in Moscow at Putin’s invitation. Instead, he refused to go to Belgium for the summit of Julio Eu-Cina.
The high representative, Kaja KallasHe left no doubt about his frustration. “What is clear is that China is the main facilitator of the Russian war. Without Chinese support, Russia could not fight war in the amount in which it is fighting it. We see it 80% of double use products enter Russia through China“Said Kallas, referring to the elusion of western sanctions.” If China really wanted to stop support, it would have an impact. “
The narrow one Friendship of Beijing with Moscow He joined a series of complaints and tensions that have sunk the EU-China relationships to historical lows.
Other voltages have to do with the mass export of low goods products produced in China, the Intensive use of state subsidies At the expense of foreign competitors, the protectionist regulations that prevent European access to the Chinese market, surveillance of citizens and private companies, the management of Covid-19 pandemics, aggressive behavior in The Strait of TaiwanThe repression of the Uigur minority in the Xinjiang region, human rights violations, computer attacks and disinformation campaigns.
ADVERTISINGIt is very unlikely that Any coordination between Brussels and Beijing to overcome Trump rates Solve this range of open fronts of this length – and not connected, all complex and dependent on factors that escape the control of the EU.
Although some leaders such as the Spanish Pedro Sánchez and the Hungarian Viktor Orbán support a restoration of relationships, others remain deeply skeptical. The coalition agreement of the next German government, chaired by Friedrich Merz, says: “We must recognize that the elements of the systemic rivalry have now passed to the front line as a consequence of China’s actions. “
The contradictions in public discourse – asking for a closer cooperation with frightening criticisms – encapsulate the persistent difficulty in finding a common and uniform line of action between the 27 Member States. The ambivalence was maintained even when Beijing positioned himself next to the same country in which the blockage considers its main opponent -Rusia- and will remain while the EU is looking for new partners to face Trump disorder. That these alliances are forged on authentic shared values or on opportunistic pragmatism is a completely different problem.
“The current commercial conversations with China do not necessarily try to work more in close contact with Beijing: Rather it is to use this strategic moment of uncertainty to negotiate new conditions And a new commitment to China, “said Alicja Bachulska, a member of the Policy of the Council for European Foreign Affairs (ECFR).
ADVERTISING“It’s not about returning to usual. The EU would like to obtain some concessions of Beijing, As a standards applicable to technological transfer from China or local content requirements, trying to guarantee greater added value for the European economy. It is not yet clear if Beijing would be willing to it. “
