The market sees high interest rates to 14.25 % this week, which is the highest level since 2016
OS Basic attention from Brazil You must arrive 14,25 % This Wednesday (19), The level of this Selic It was previously preserved in a break July 2015 to August 2016.
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank (BC) begins its two -day meeting to discuss the interest rate on Tuesday (18).
The market is expected that the council meets guidance It took place in December To climb SELIC at a percentage. today, Average 13.25 % per yearAfter the rise in the same size in the first meeting of this year.
Thus, there are no great surprises through the decision itself. But the eyes of the investors will take place in the statement of this meeting.
“It will be important to monitor communication with COPOM marks and signs in the end of future decisions,” Pradesco said in a report.
After March, BC had left the future openPutting the following monetary policy decisions under the responsibility of the upcoming data about the economic scenario.
BTG Pacual’s pre -symbol research refers to the market department regarding the position that must be adopted by the monetary authority.
About 38 % of the respondents argue that COPOM must keep the door open and issue a statement “without an explicit signal for the next meeting (…)”.
A little smaller part says that TOM should be “indicates that Copom is expected to be more convenient, at this time, reduce the basic interest rate adjustment rate at the next meeting.”
As for the factors that were observed before BC, the respondents see an exacerbation of the international scenario and economic activity of the January meeting. Indeed, in the financial scenario and inflation expectations have not noticed relevant changes in this period.
For Gustavo Sung, Suno Research, “Economic Cynos (as a whole) is a little better than the January meeting.”
Song concluded that “we believe that the committee should maintain a fixed and cautious position, with a difficult statement, as well as in recent meetings, due to the uncertainty and challenges that are still present.”
Flexible
The fact is that the prices are still warm in the country, even with the restricted level of monetary policy.
National Consumer Prices Index (IPCA), which measures official inflation in the country, Restoring 1.31 % in FebruaryIn the largest progress of the month since 2003, according to the historical series of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
In the past twelve months, the rate has been 5.06 %, above 4.56 % recorded in 12 months until January.
UBS sees the scenario in a more difficult tone, betting on a renovation at the highest level at the May meeting.
“If the committee chooses to slow down the rhythm at its meeting in May, we believe that the market will realize that the central bank is more lenient regarding inflation, which may reduce expectations and lead to a real and real rise,” the bank pointed out.
On the other hand, Suno Research sees good news when deeply looking at February data.
After months of unfavorable qualitative data, some numbers have become more benign, especially for the most monitored groups by the central bank. Gustavo Song said that the spread rate, which measures the spread of inflation in the economy, has decreased for the second month in a row.
“There was another positive point that was the slowdown in the high prices in January to February of basic services, intensive labor and medium services -which reflects the scenario of slowing economic activity -as well as industrial goods.”
However, the economist confirmed that despite some relief in February, many prices are still much higher than the upper limit of 4.5 % of the purpose of inflation and that The inflation must be followed hard for the coming months.
In February, British Columbia President Gabriel Galipolo said Inflation should continue in the goal for the coming months And that families and companies should go through a “uncomfortable” moment. In addition, he indicated that the prices should only be controlled yet Summary of economic activity.
Economic activity
In her recent meetings, COPOM referred to The economy expands above its sustainable ability As one of the main concerns about inflation.
In 2024, the Brazilian GDP (GDP) accelerated and closed the year with 3.4 % growth. What indicates economists, however, Forced effect through government spending.
Although the initial slowdown has been observed from the third to the fourth quarter of last year, the market does not see room to reduce a possible benefit, which depends on the relationship between the financial and huge scenario.
“With regard to future discounts, our inflation scenario will not be more likely to reduce BCB this year, although we expect weaker economic activity. If the financial scenario does not deteriorate further, there may be discounts in early 2026.”
The bank refers to the possibility, this year and next year, a scenario of inflation – when it collects the decline in economic activity and high prices.
Nevertheless, Deutsche Bank sees a similar scenario for the country that the country faced during the 2015 and 2016 stagnation period, and enhances fears of public accounts neutralizing the effects of monetary policy.
The German bank highlighted, above all, as an additional pressure for credit stimulation measures – like Special shipment – And Income tax repair (IR)To exempt Who receives up to 5 thousand dollars.
“Inflation has shown clear signs of financial domination, indicating that it can remain close to these levels or up to the 2026 elections (…) We see fascinating risks to tightening more than prices. (…) The inflation has become more self-deficiency and financially, and it can remain high or rising more, as in 2014-16”.
From May onwards
For the May meeting, expectations are divided into the pace that must increase COPOM. However, according to BC expectations in the focus bulletin, SEIC must rise 0.5 points at the third meeting of the year and 0.25 on Wednesday, parking about 15 % by the beginning of 2026.
